@cstross @NewtonMark

Bingo.

Folks who are hoping for #AIbubble to pop are going to be disappointed.

Not because it's NOT going to happen, but because when it does, it's not going to look like like a wipe-out, but consolidation like the dot.com boom-bust.

Instead of hundreds of capitalised players, there will be two, three. Which IMHO will be worse.

LLMs are genuinely useful tech and you don't need broligarch #datacentres, I got Deepseek R2 and Qwen 2.5 Coder running on a bottom tier VPS the other day, and though performance was shit, it's just a matter of more RAM.

TLDR; LLMs are not going away, folks who use them find them useful, and you don't have to burn the planet to use them.

Microsoft spends billions on AI, converts just 3.3% of Copilot Chat users
https://www.theregister.com/2026/02/02/microsoft_ai_spend_copilot/
CEO talks momentum while paid uptake remains minimal

#AIBubble #AI

@ChrisMayLA6

Based on its P/E ratio of 321 - (a healthy P/E ratio is around 20)
#Palantir is vastly overvalued and overhyped, why does the UK keep using such a bloated company that it doomed to fail?
It is also a central part of the #AIBubble

@ChrisMayLA6

Based on its P/E ratio of 321 - (a healthy P/E ratio is around 20)
#Palantir is vastly overvalued and overhyped, why does the UK keep using such a bloated company that it doomed to fail?
It is also a central part of the #AIBubble

The other bit of interesting business news this week was that NVIDIA has displaced Apple as TSMC's biggest customer. This is interesting because it means that Apple now has a financial incentive to burst the #AIBubble.

If I were Tim Cook, and wanted to take a break from enabling fascists to run the company that I'm paid to run, I'd point at some of the papers Apple has written about limitations of AI and release a statement saying something like 'Apple has some of the smartest engineers in the business and is a leader in the AI space. We have rigorously examined the state of the art in transformer and diffusion models and concluded that these are dead-end approaches in building tools that address the kind of real-world use cases that matter to our customers. As such, we are going to limit our exposure to the AI Bubble and significantly reduce our spending on deep learning models. We will continue to build systems that improve the experience for our users with machine learning where appropriate, but will no longer be investing in the kind of large models that require huge datacentres to train'.

And then I'd watch the market panic and NVIDIA's orders collapse.

Google to foist Gemini pane on Chrome users in automated browsing push
https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/29/chrome_gemini_pane/
The world’s most popular browser has gained a dedicated sidebar for AI browsing

Having spent so much money on AI, Big Tech is now increasingly desperate to force people to use it...

#AI #AIbubble

Is that a popping sound?

#AIBubble
https://www.ft.com/content/c7e23f07-70b3-43a7-8e1d-040ca93d6d90

Is that a popping sound?

#AIBubble
https://www.ft.com/content/c7e23f07-70b3-43a7-8e1d-040ca93d6d90

Google to foist Gemini pane on Chrome users in automated browsing push
https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/29/chrome_gemini_pane/
The world’s most popular browser has gained a dedicated sidebar for AI browsing

Having spent so much money on AI, Big Tech is now increasingly desperate to force people to use it...

#AI #AIbubble

Plopp!

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/jan/26/georgia-datacenters-ai-ban

#ai #aibubble

With the US acting more and more like a rogue state, it's time to impose your own personal sanctions.

Bite the bullet. Stop using Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta and ChatGPT - where you can. Hit them where it hurts and burst that AI bubble.

Most of the barriers come down to inconvenience.

#LeaveBigTech #Boycott #BoycottAmerica #US #BigTech #Microsoft #Apple #Google #Meta #ChatGPT #AIBubble

@pluralistic on the #AIbubble, why it is a #bubble and what we will get out of it after it busts:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2026/jan/18/tech-ai-bubble-burst-reverse-centaur

One of the best texts I've read about #AI so far.

@pluralistic on the #AIbubble, why it is a #bubble and what we will get out of it after it busts:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2026/jan/18/tech-ai-bubble-burst-reverse-centaur

One of the best texts I've read about #AI so far.

"I'm sorry! I'm a technology writer, which means I'm supposed to be encouraging you to throw hundreds of billions of dollars at the money-losingest technology in human history, AI. No one has ever lost as much money as the AI companies.

There is no way to operate one of Nvidia's big AI-optimized GPUs without losing money. The owners of these GPUs who have lost the least money are the ones who rushed into buying GPUs without ensuring they'd have electricity to power them, and have been forced to leave their GPUs to age in warehouses. The minute they plug in those GPUs, they'll start losing money, and the more they use them, the more money they'll lose.

I'm sorry. As a technology writer, I'm supposed to be telling you that this bet will some day pay off, because one day we will have shoveled so many words into the word-guessing program that it wakes up and learns how to actually do the jobs it is failing spectacularly at today. This is a proposition akin to the idea that if we keep breeding horses to run faster and faster, one of them will give birth to a locomotive. Humans possess intelligence, and machines do not. The difference between a human and a word-guessing program isn't how many words the human knows.

I'm sorry. I know that when we talk about "digital sovereignty," we're obliged to talk about how we can build more data-centres that we can fill up with money-losing chips from American silicon monopolists in the hopes of destroying as many jobs as possible while blowing through our clean energy goals and enshittifying as much of our potable water as possible.

I don't have any advice for how to do that. I'm sorry!"

https://pluralistic.net/2026/01/13/not-sorry/

#AI #GenerativeAI #LLMs #BigTech #AIBubble #Canada #USA

"I'm sorry! I'm a technology writer, which means I'm supposed to be encouraging you to throw hundreds of billions of dollars at the money-losingest technology in human history, AI. No one has ever lost as much money as the AI companies.

There is no way to operate one of Nvidia's big AI-optimized GPUs without losing money. The owners of these GPUs who have lost the least money are the ones who rushed into buying GPUs without ensuring they'd have electricity to power them, and have been forced to leave their GPUs to age in warehouses. The minute they plug in those GPUs, they'll start losing money, and the more they use them, the more money they'll lose.

I'm sorry. As a technology writer, I'm supposed to be telling you that this bet will some day pay off, because one day we will have shoveled so many words into the word-guessing program that it wakes up and learns how to actually do the jobs it is failing spectacularly at today. This is a proposition akin to the idea that if we keep breeding horses to run faster and faster, one of them will give birth to a locomotive. Humans possess intelligence, and machines do not. The difference between a human and a word-guessing program isn't how many words the human knows.

I'm sorry. I know that when we talk about "digital sovereignty," we're obliged to talk about how we can build more data-centres that we can fill up with money-losing chips from American silicon monopolists in the hopes of destroying as many jobs as possible while blowing through our clean energy goals and enshittifying as much of our potable water as possible.

I don't have any advice for how to do that. I'm sorry!"

https://pluralistic.net/2026/01/13/not-sorry/

#AI #GenerativeAI #LLMs #BigTech #AIBubble #Canada #USA

@scalzi

Youse younglings seem to forget that for 20 years teh interwebs was not making any moni either...

The 'running out of cash' does not BTW mean all #AI will poof in a cloud of smoke. Its a stressor point only. #OpenAI has been successful at getting suckers^H^H^H^H^H^H^Hinvestors and the Inference slowly becomes amortized (cached, distilled, edge-run) and revenue may come from other streams (e.g. Militray).

...OOPS sorry I mis-spoke, let me join the cohort:
"WAAAH #AIBUBBLE STOCHIASTIC PARROT #AISlop " 😁 🤡 💀

TIL it is possible to opt out of Duck Duck Go's terrible AI features https://duckduckgo.com/duckduckgo-help-pages/ai-features/opting-out-of-ai #DuckDuckGo #AIBubble #TIL

TIL it is possible to opt out of Duck Duck Go's terrible AI features https://duckduckgo.com/duckduckgo-help-pages/ai-features/opting-out-of-ai #DuckDuckGo #AIBubble #TIL

"Now, I know what you’re thinking. Ed, isn’t that exactly what’s happening here? We’ve got overvalued startups, we’ve got multiple unprofitable, unsustainable AI companies promising to IPO, we’ve got overvalued tech stocks, and we’ve got one of the largest infrastructural buildouts of all time. Tech companies are trading at ridiculous multiples of their earnings-per-share, but the multiples aren’t as high. That’s good, right?

No. No it isn’t. AI boosters and well-wishers are obsessed with making this comparison because saying “things worked out after the dot com bubble” allows them to rationalize doing stupid, destructive and reckless things.

Even if this was just like the dot com bubble, things would be absolutely fucking catastrophic — the NASDAQ dropped 78% from its peak in March 2000 — but due to the incredible ignorance of both the private and public power brokers of the tech industry, I expect consequences that range from calamitous to catastrophic, dependent almost entirely on how long the bubble takes to burst, and how willing the SEC is to greenlight an IPO.

The AI bubble bursting will be worse, because the investments are larger, the contagion is wider, and the underlying asset — GPUs — are entirely different in their costs, utility and basic value than dark fiber. Furthermore, the basic unit economics of AI — both in its infrastructure and the AI companies themselves — are magnitudes more horrifying than anything we saw in the dot com bubble.

In simpler terms, I’m really fucking worried, and I’m sick and tired of hearing people making this comparison."

https://www.wheresyoured.at/dot-com-bubble/

#AI #GenerativeAI #LLMs #DotComBubble #AIBubble #VC #VentureCapital #BigTech